Allen Robinson is a great football player but arguably even better businessman.
Roughly two years after signing a three-year, $42 million deal with the Bears, he should receive any day now an extension promising at least another $40 million. Robinson won’t turn 27 until August and, barring good health, could have another monstrous payday that coincides with the prime of his career.
Again, that extension is a matter of when not if now, but it’s worth sharing this reminder from Establish the Run’s Adam Levitan that Robinson — or more specifically Robinson’s fantasy owners — have already won this offseason.
A-Rob finished as WR7 overall in PPR, securing a career-high 98 catches, with 1,147 yards and 7 TDs his best since an All-Pro second season in 2015. All that despite Mitch Trubisky finishing 28th in Football Outsiders’ DYAR/DVOA QB ratings and the Bears ranking 29th in scoring and tied for last in yards per pass.
The scary part(s): In addition to there very likely being only one direction for his QB play to go this season with Nick Foles on board, the Bears’ Alpha WR1 Robinson can play even better too.
Make no mistake — he was awesome in his second season with the Bears, and first more than a year out from his left ACL reconstruction surgery culminating his stay in Jacksonville. However, A-Rob’s 11.7-yard clip was the lowest since his rookie season —viewers had a hard time remaining vertical watching the Bears feeble offense — and while his 63.6 percent catch average was a personal best, even he told us there were one or two atypical drops later on in an increasingly frustrating season.
AGAIN THOUGH, mostly fricking awesome.
And more reasons to believe the awesomeness will only increase as A-Rob settles in with Foles, who helped DeSean Jackson to a WR8 fantasy finish back in the day and more-comparable-but-inferior Alshon Jeffery grab four TDs in their final six games together in flight to Philly’s first Super Bowl title.
Irrespective of where readers are at on the Foles acquisition and its cost, he’s not only going to play, but when he does he’ll be the best quarterback Robinson has worked with since high school. Did we mention A-Rob is a great player yet?
Could the ghost of Jimmy Graham pose a threat to Robinson’s production in the red-zone, where he’s collected 23 percent of the combined targets and 21 percent of the receiving TDs over the past two seasons? Sure, it’s possible, but it’s not worth worrying about considering the Bears haven’t made any additions to their WR corps and Taylor Gabriel’s release vacates a pair of red zone scores over that span.
It gets even better for Robinson’s fantasy prospects. He’s currently only the WR20, going off the board at 05.01 according to fantasy football calculator.
Seriously, it’d appear that the overall perception of the Bears’ admittedly laughable offense last season and a few heavily scrutinized decisions since is dragging down A-Rob’s ADP a lot more than it should — which is more than fine with us.
So if A-Rob is a clear early fantasy winner, it probably goes without saying that Trubisky currently is on the opposite end of the ledger. Hey, it could be worse for Mitch, the Bears could’ve consummated a deal with Teddy Bridgewater. In all seriousness, while we're not optimistic, we are anxious to hopefully see how Trubisky would respond to this challenge in training camp (if there is such a thing).
But we’ll give you one other early Bears fantasy loser — this one in pencil. David Montgomery's 2.0 yards per contact last season was fewer than only eight qualifying carriers (at least 200 attempts). The Bears currently are set to return all five starters, with a new O-line coach, sans any new investments. We'd be stunned if at least one of their second-rounders isn't spent on a potential plug-and-play right guard with the chance to be groomed for the future at tackle. Will that be enough?
On the flipside, Montgomery is going to benefit if (when) Foles runs Matt Nagy's RPO offense more efficiently, and he still appears locked in to a feature role that should only evolve — even with Tarik Cohen and an expanded role coming for Cordarrelle Patterson. We'll circle back on this one after the draft.